Formulating Risk into Research and Engineering Projects

Risk analysis afforded by software like Crystal Ball® has been applied to a number of aspects of technical program management including schedules, costs, portfolio analysis, and six sigma. The results provide powerful, quantitative aids to technical decisions. It is easy to get consumed in the mechanics and details of models before the problem is formulated. Proper formulation of the risk-aware model by the project team can result in a more collaborative, focused and successful effort. Influence diagramming at the outset properly frames the problem. Data collection and interviewing techniques establish boundaries and key uncertainties in the model and also encourage input and ownership by project stakeholders. These “soft” methods lead to a good foundation and a sound analysis.